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Forecasting and Modeling (ACAE)

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• Transport Canada Aviation Forecast Conference 2010, Ottawa, Ontario,
  December 14, 2010

Aviation Forecasts and Models

Transport Canada's aviation forecasting system is unique in Canada, consisting of a number of interrelated state -of-the-art models that draw on data from numerous sources including government, private firms, the airline industry and international organizations. The Aviation Forecast Program (AFP) and its models allows the Department to develop a fully integrated and national view of domestic, transborder and international passenger movements. This program is also particularly relevant to airport authorities, and other federal departments and agencies who rely on independent and objective forecasts based on a systems approach to help in planning and decision-making. The AFP detailed forecasts are available by subscription only. 

It supports a number of applications across the Department and beyond including Air Policy’s negotiation of air service agreements between Canada and other countries.

• Aviation Forecasts - Reports Listing

Supply Chain Management Modeling

In general, a supply chain and logistics network involves organizations, people, activities, information and resources such as a transportation network and modes in moving a product from a supplier to a customer. Overall, supply chain activities transform raw materials and components into a finished product that is delivered to an end customer. On the other hand, supply chain management (SCM), is a process that involves planning, implementing, and controlling the operations of the above mentioned components of a supply chain as efficiently as possible. In a transportation context, this considers all movements and storage of raw material, work-in-process inventory, and movements of finished goods from point-of-origin to point-of-consumption. As the primary objective of SCM is to fulfill consumer demands through the most efficient use of resources and capacity, an efficient and reliable transportation network plays a pivotal role, particularly, for the competitiveness of firms.

The modeling of supply chain management involves optimizing the performance of all components in a supply chain by way of removing/lessening supplier’s bottlenecks, implementing just-in-time (JIT) techniques, optimizing manufacturing flow, making an efficient use of location/allocation techniques, and vehicle routing analysis, based on using mathematical programming, statistical and econometric approaches and traditional logistic optimization techniques amongst others.

By leveraging the various tools and measures being developed and maintained ( i.e. fluidity, TLC, etc.), the Economic Analysis Directorate is aiming to provide decision makers with a set of metrics that will help in monitoring the reliability, competitiveness and effectiveness of the Canadian Gateways and Corridors in an increased trade perspective.

Date modified:

2010-10-15

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